As of November 2021, the APT Forum is closed to new posts. Like with many online forums, usage has decreased in recent years. All previous posts are still available.

Odds on a set being beat by a straight on the river?

hmg87
hmg87

This may be an elementary question but in a full ring game, what are the odds of a flopped set being beat on the river by a straight? Not that I would ever fold AAA...thanks.

Answers

  • pgearan
    pgearan

    No these are good questions and important to know. We have an odds chart summary of how often hands are made on given situation :

    https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/articles/beyond-basics/knowing-the-odds.php

    You can also put your scenario in the below Odds Calculator by selecting 2 players and put in AA and say 89o and do a flop of AJ10 assuming open end draw. When I did that the straight draw against a flopped set will win 25% of the time. A gut shot will win a little less than 14% of the time.

    https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/winning-percentage-odds-calculator/

    Logic behind the numbers is so if flopped set was facing a flopped open ended straight draw, the straight draw (8 outs) would get there 31.5% of the time and the gut shot (4 outs) 16.5% of the time. However, even if either the turn or the river makes the straight you have a chance that the other card makes you the boat or quads. So you have 7 outs from flop to turn to make full house or better (around 15%) and 10 outs from turn to river (around 22%) even if the straight was made on the turn which combined means that you can get there around 19% of the time. So that made open end straight only holds up about 81% of the time so 31.5%*.81=25.5% - close to the number you get when you put your exact scenario in the odds calculator.

    I really like the APT Odds Calculator to play with such scenarios. Still somewhat surprising how often certain hands get beat!

Sign In to comment.