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To call or not to call
1/2 NL ring game at the local casino. I get pocket 77 in the BB. 5 guys limp in, I check.
The flop comes 8 4 7 with 2 clubs, giving me a set. I make a pot size bet. UTG +2 calls, UTG +3 raises to $30. Everybody else folds to me. I reraise to $90 (leaving me with $180 behind). UTG +2 calls and UTG +3 goes all in, covering my stack.
Should I call?
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Comments
So it is $180 to call, into a pot that is effectively $402 at that point. That is around 2.2:1, with one player yet to act. You didn't say what the last player's stack size was. But if it was comparable to yours, he's getting over 3:1 to call if you call. And his call would bump your odds up also.
You didn't indicate what kind of range you put the two players on. It was limped around pre-flop, so either or of them could be playing a lot of hands that might connect with the draws on this board. Suited ace-rag combos in clubs, or that paired the rag, or where the rag fits a straight draw are all possible, but more likely for UTG+2 than UTG+3, I think. A big overpair probably doesn't get limped around, but something like 88 or 99 might. Probably a great scenario for you would be 44, giving you the good end of set over set. But 88 has you crushed. Your 7s block the most reasonable two-pair combo. I can't imagine early/middle players even limping with 84s. As I type this I am starting to think you aren't beating much of what the shover would bet this way. 44 is the big one. Maybe he limps a big pocket pair and then decides to attack with it post-flop. But the two hands I am really worried about ate 88 and 65. You're crushed if either of them has 88. And you need UTG+2 to call to give you the odds to continue if either of them has 65.
Maybe I am being nitty, but I think I fold.
Let me think out loud: 6 to the flop, so just $12. You bet $12. Call, $30... Why the raise there to $90? What was your thought processes there?
I am thinking because of the wide field, we have to expect a wide range of hands smashing this board...
The pot is $36 after your bet and a caller, and this guy definitely is interested. He makes it $30... What hands do that? I dont think a flush draw want to do that without TP, so the two clubs would be 4c7c and he would have something like Ac8c. He could have 88, the dreaded 56 or even 9cTc.
Can I assume you are trying to narrow the field and force the draws to pay a high price? Assuming the draws call, is that what you want?
To answer the specific question, if you looking at 2 players, one cold calling a 3 bet and the other then 4-bet shoving, how much do you like $180. Because that is the cost of watching one of them turn over a better hand and hoping the board pairs and one hand isn't 88. (I just dont see a $500+ pot in 1/2 with 2 pair here.)