Adviser Suggestion and Equity

russ1409

I'm trying to get a handle on all of the tools here at APT. Maybe this belongs in the APT specific forum, but...here goes.

I'm doing my weekly training, which is playing from the BB.

https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/game.php?replay_id=128632&advisor_id=-1

I get into a limped pot with Qd8x and see a J68ddd flop vs. Doug Hull. I don't recall my equity here but the advisers all hated my $7 flop call. On the river the 7d comes and my advisers are all screaming check fold. I think about my opponent's range and decide I'm fearing Ad,Kd, T9dd, and 45dd (duh) and I think calling a $50 bet into an $86 pot is reasonable. I check my equity against Hull's range and it's 59.x%

So: if I understand the tools correctly, I'm a favorite right now to win 59% of the time, right? If so, why are all of my advisers telling me to fold?

I called, and I called a river bet after the brick Kc. I would have done it in real life also, because I would have guessed that I was ahead on the turn, although I certainly couldn't calculate the 59% figure.

Am I wrong in my thinking? Of course Hull turns over the 45dd and I lose. Just like in real life, most of the time :-) Is this a one off that he beat the odds, or should I have folded at the turn?

Had I raised preflop, I would have dropped the 45dd from his range. I would be curious to know what the bot would do in that case.