Bluffing FD river
Playing AI on KGB level (500/1,000). Stacks are ~100k.
AsJd in CO, folded to me. Lead out 3,000. BTN and SB call 3,000. 10,000 in pot.
Flop is 2sKs7d. I c-bet 7,000. BTN calls and SB folds. Pot is 24,000.
Turn is 7h. Checks around.
River is 3s, putting 3 spades on the board and a pair. Since this is just the video game, I bet out 14,000 (would not be my move with real money).
Here is the question: "Tight, Aggressive Pro" AI ("Svetlana") calls and shows 2 pair, pocket 10's along with the 7's on board.
My questions are: should I have c-bet with 2 players on the flop, and, how the heck does Svetlana (AI) call when a 3rd spade hit? I mean, that looks like a big-time scare card to me here. I know I was just playing around, but I want to know if there is a rationale behind her call that I am missing.
Comments
Svetlana was getting nearly 3 to 1, I think you put enough doubt in her mind by checking the turn that she felt compelled to call you on the river.
In the future, I'd suggest being more TAG with your c-bets on these kinds of flops. In other words, don't automatically cbet, but IF you're going to cbet the flop, fire a second bullet on the turn too.
I agree with Steve in that you should have fired another bullet on the turn. I think around 2/3 pot or more. This applies pressure to all hands without a K and a 7. If you are opening wide in the CO then a 7 could easily be in your range. And there are not many hands in the buttons range which would defend with a 7. So I don't think he would play back at you. However if he does smooth call then you can easily check fold the river as calling your turn indicates a hand which will not be released easily.
Finally I think that he called on the river due to "story" not making sense. He probably thinks that a 7 or K would bet the turn to charge his draws. Checking and betting the river polarizes your range to a blufff or a massive hand. If you are bluffing more than 25% here than he should call. Which he does.
Story to me looks like it could be "semi-bluffed the flop, bricked the turn, caught the flush on the river." Or "saw the 3rd spade hit and figured what the heck (bluff)."
A "legit" FD story would be that I was checking (intended check/fold) the turn to get the free card.
3:1 to look me up on the river bluff is a good price, though. I'd say I might bluff like that 1 in 6 times, but not 1 in 4 (25% bluff would be more like 15% for me).
Did I need to bet pot to give 2:1 odds?
And I hear you both on barreling the turn as a follow-up c-bet. But is there a ballpark percentage of the time that I'd want to barrel, or is it more like I "either c-bet or don't," but THEN I barrel the turn IF I had c-bet the flop?
I wouldn't say a turn c-bet is automatic in this situation (though it's not terrible). You need to randomize (based on equity) both your flop and turn c-bets, and you did just that with the backdoor nfd c-bet on the flop. You'd barrel a turned spade, A, or a gutter (Q or T), and you'd value bet anything better than KQ (or even KJs, since you're in the CO), so that's plenty of turn betting.
Another consideration is which hands you want to bluff the riv with. AJ is ok, but I'd prefer something like AQ since it blocks KQ (which I think is the most likely med-value hand to call down three barrels). AJ blocks KJ, which is exactly the type of hand I want the BTN to hold when I'm bluffing the riv, so it's kind of an anti-blocker.
Btw, a flop c-bet here is mandatory with the bd nfd. Turn checks need to be balanced among c/f, c/c, and c/r, so a turn check isn't horrible here (and it did buy you a free shot at a 6-outer).
I think that your overall line was consistent with a FD. Not all bluffs work. You got Svetlana set-up for when you do hit your flush.