Comments

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  nytider

  October 2017

  I think Hero's pre-flop three-bet size was too small. Maybe Villan 7 folds to something in the $0.20 range. I would certainly set-mine with pocket 4s if it only cost me another nickel. I don't know the player or the previous action on the table though.

  I also think I'd have tapped the breaks when the board paired on the turn, after my flop bet got called.
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  pgearan

  October 2017

  nytider has the two key points I think. The formula for the 3-bet that I have found useful is something around 3 x the raise + all the other money in play. So here it is 3($.06) + $0.01 (SB) + (0.02 (BB) = $0.21, so right in nytder's range of $0.20. Of course, we don't know exactly what Villian 8 has (he knows Villian 7 is calling either way likely but definitely once he calls), but perhaps he folds to the larger raise, thus giving Villian 7 worse set mining odds when action comes back. I can't imagine too many hands where the original raiser folds for that raise even if Villian 8 had not called, even for table image alone! Even if Villian 8 had folded, Villian 7 only has to call $0.05 into a pot of $0.20 which with implied set mining odds is a no brainer, and really any hand in the original raising from hijack position is calling. Once Villian 8 calls and pot is $0.31, well now Villian 7 is even approaching the straight odds to flop a set (8-1)! If you had gone to $0.21, and assuming Villian 8 then folded (and blinds did as well as happened), Villian 7 now has to call $0.15 into a pot of $0.30 which with a small pocket pair is a much lower equity play and although many people will call with any pair, many decent players will fold that.

  Villian 7 then gives you a big red flag right on the flop by betting OOP into you. That is pretty concerning given a pretty dry board - rainbow and not a lot of straight possibilities. Likely Villain 7 does not hold AA or KK or you would have heard about that pre-flop with a 4-bet. So what does that leave that they would bet out into on that board? Pretty much all the Broadway hands that contain a J could be in the original raising range (except the ones you block with your queens of course), certainly all the suited ones and most of the unsuited as well. Then the pairs that hit the set. What others? Maybe 10-10, 9-9, 8-8 although I think those are more likely played as a check-call bluff catcher on the flop when you continuation bet. Regardless, your call with the overpair on the flop is definitely correct as you beat all of the hands except those set pairs. Some could advocate for a re-raise but I like the call.

  However, the turn could have been a gift to you because with another J on the board, you are now behind to pretty much every hand except those mid-pairs or some really odd bluff. When Villian 7 checks, I think you should follow suit and check as well, and pot control. Then on the river the Villian may just put in a value bet similar to what the turn bet was of around $0.50 and even if you call you saved the $0.83 you ended up having to call on the river on top of your $0.53 turn bet. Conversely, if the turn is checked, and Villian 7 went all-on for $1.36 on the river making to pot $2.08, then I think you have a fairly easy fold getting less than 2 to 1 on call, and you are likely behind way more often than that.

  On the river, I realize you are in a tough spot as now the pot is $2.71 and you are getting better than 3 to 1 on a call. With the K on the board now though, now Villain 7 even has coverage for some very unlikely previous bluffing hands like AK (although I do not see the Villian check calling that on the river). Given the action to this point, you can only beat a bluff and unless you have a read on this player that he bluffs pretty frequently, this is likely still a fold because I think the made hands are far more likely (and plentiful) than the bluff hands which to me are almost non-existent with the turn check-call.

  Tough to let those big pairs go though!
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  vinnyvagus

  October 2017

  Thanks for your advice here. yeah having Q/Q and then two J/J come up I guess I got excited by having two pairs and holding decent pairs at that with Q/Q as I didn't put Villan on K/K or A/A at the point of the turn so thought I was still ahead... but then didn't put him on a low or mid pair such as 4/4 giving him the full house when the 4 and J/J came out.... I guess i need to study and learn some more. :-)