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Low stake live game hand (Northern California)
This is a hand I (mis?)played tonight in a 2/2/3 live game. The extra small blind is on the button.
UTG ($370) is a regular. He raises to 15 (a typical raise size in this game).
UTG +1 (500) calls.
Hero (480has QQ. Raise to $40.
Both call (all others fold)
Flop (122 after 5 drop)
9h, 8c, 3d
Check to hero. Bet $80. Both call.
Turn (362)
10d
Check, check hero ??
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Comments
So at this point, I only have one pot-sized bet remaining. The original raiser can't even call that with his stack. And the other player would only have $20 behind after calling. There is also a decent chance that the turn card helped one or both of my opponents. Although the turn card gave me a few more outs to improve, I am pretty far behind if either of my opponents called me pre-flop with AA, KK, TT, 99, or 88. Less likely would be JQ, 33, 67, or J7. And if I am not behind, anyone who has two diamonds, including all of the Ax and Kx hands that would have called pre-flop, now has a better draw than me. And a lot of them aren't going away. What hands am I going to fold out by betting that I didn't fold out on the flop? Maybe Broadway hands that aren't diamonds would fold. What beaten hands are going to call me? Maybe JJ calls. But even they have an open-ended straight draw.
Maybe I am too conservative here. But I think I check behind and preserve my escape route, in case things get crazy on the river.
Thanks for the input. I came to the conclusion that this was a check behind. Unfortunately it was after I made the mistake of making a half pot bet and faced a shove from uTG +1. He had a set of 9s.
When they both flat on that somewhat dry flop, that is concerning. By the turn, now 6 pocket pairs beat my QQ, although KK and AA unlikely because you think you would have seen a 4-bet pre-flop. But that even more begs the question: what are they calling with on the flop with no flush draws and as nytider says, not likely straight draws? Agree with nytider, that JJ is one of the few hands that could make sense that you are ahead of. If there was only 1 villian here it is scary enough, but 2 make it feel really dicey.
That said, at the moment it still is a tough subjective position as you have dodged the A and K so far and that often feels like a win already and there is the temptation not to show weakness .
But agree with both of your conclusions I think this is a check on turn and perhaps a difficult river decision when UTG+1 bets $200 or so on river unless a non-diamond J hits.