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ATP MTT simulator
Does hardest level mean they get to suck out every time, because that's what happens. It is utterly unbelievable how I can have the nuts on the turn and every single time get sucked out on the river. How is this even possible?
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Hi,
All deals are random. You are playing a lot more hands a lot faster than you usually do and humans are biased to remember what they think is bad luck. Look at your luck statistics and you'll be able to see if you have actually been a little unlucky or if it is just perception. Overall, everything works out based on random probability. If you look back at your hand history, you will see that you are not being drawn out on at the river every time you have the nuts (or even more than what would happen randomly if you play enough hands).
Note that at the highest level the bots learn your tendencies and they are very good at sticking around when the odds make it profitable for them to do so. So if you are seeing a lot of what you think are suck outs on the river, you may have identified a major weakness in your game - allowing good opponents to have the proper odds to continue deep into the hand. These bots are unlikely to continue if you are charging them the right price on the flop and the turn. This could also be an indication that your game is predictable, so your opponents make proper decisions and similarly are able to be around later in the hand only when they have reasonable odds to beat you.
Allen
Yeah, I understand that. But honestly it just seems like every single time I get it in good I get sucked out on.
Honestly, I'm playing on easy today. I've been sucked out on multiple times after going all in with the effective nuts. One example, I have QQ OP has 33 flop comes AK5, I shove, they call??? turn is 5 river, of course, is the 3. Next time I get QQ I'm all in preflop against two OPs, one with KT the other with AK, this means there's about a 3%, at best for either of them to catch right? Nah, K on the river. Now, you might still say that this is happening because "so many hands are being played" but honestly, that's BS IMHO. So, I'm going to start recording EVERY session I play, and I'll share on youtube what I find.
I'm going to be a little blunt here because I think you need to hear it.
I'm not sure where you get 3%, but QQ vs KT and AK is only 55% favorite, and that is assuming none are suited and your QQ blocks their suits. Even on the river, with the first four board cards completely blank there is still a 12% chance of being beaten. If you actually believe it is 3%, you really need to study poker odds.
All these posts you are making just sound like you are on tilt. You might want to consider taking a break - poker should be fun and you seem to just be stressed out. Sharing every "bad beat" you get, especially ones that are basically coinflips, on youtube isn't going to help you out. The last time you were doing this, you came back a couple weeks later saying that you had reassessed and adjusted your game and things were going better. I think you may want to do that same thing again.
Thanks Allen, take care.
Oh, and that QQ hand, wasn't really a "coin flip" to begin with. with 3 people in the hand QQ is 2-1 to win, even with the hands it was up against. At the turn, it was 4-1 favorite, so there's that. Yes, I may be on tilt. I'm still going to analyze over a larger set of hands here on APT. I mean, I really like the site and value the tools available, I just want to make sure I'm training in an environment that is as near IRL as possible. And my perspective at this point is that it is not.
I'll also agree with a previous assessment of yours about the sim OPs on the site. They are VERY sticky. They call with some of the stupidest shit I've ever witnessed. It is absolutely unrealistic how often these calls happen. If this were on a real poker site, I would have to question the efficacy of the site actually. The VAST majority of human players would never call an all in bet with AK5 on a board with a pair of 3s. They would be laughed off the table even if they did catch a bluff, or suck out on their OP. And this happens frequently on APT.
I'll agree with you that the computers do not play like humans. They make some plays no human would ever do for the reason you mention - people don't like to get laughed at. Sometimes they make unusual plays. However, overall they win, and they win pretty big. So their unusual plays (that are definitely based on your tendencies) do enough to confuse human players that it causes wins.
I would recommend focusing on odds. In that three-handed situation, you are only 55% to win against both opponents. That's definitely not a suck-out.
It was a suckout. sorry. The K came on the river, so basically the definition of a suckout.
But it's good to know more about the sims. Will help me adjust.
Allen, I'm going to take your advice on the stepping away from poker for a while. The psychological part of the game is so huge. And I've been using the excuse of bad luck, getting sucked out on, and believing things are somehow "setup" as an excuse for a lot of bad play in marginal situations. I need to get back to the play I know is +EV, and stop putting myself in those coin flip situations that I seem to lose every single time. It's not just on APT either. Its been happening online. Haven't played live in quite a while due to the virus, but honestly I've been running so bad the past few months, it is really just getting me fed up.
Most people incorrectly assume that random events will be evenly distributed. Using a non poker example might be effective in helping you understand what I mean. Let's say you have a playlist of 100 songs, set to random play or shuffle, but you only listen 30 minutes a day and it resets the next time you listen to it. If you hear the same song in the first 30 minutes several times, perhaps yourself and definitely many people will assume that the Playlist is not actually random. I use this example because people actually complained to Apple about this when ITunes first came out....or maybe it was pandora with their stations...doesn't matter... But anyway they had to adjust the random setting to make it more evenly distributed.
There are 2 more reasons for thinking the way many people do about this. One, and this is commonly known, the positive outcomes for you are easily forgotten in the long run or even in the moment. You just think, yup my hand was better so I won. The times you lose, you remember. And whats more, when you lose a few times in a row- the idea i discussed above creeps into your head. You expect to have a positive result on the next one. In reality, the past results mean absolutely nothing as each event is independent.
The other reason which is similar and connected with both points above occurs when a person is competing against an A.I. It is so easy to assume the A.I. is adjusting the results and winning or losing basically whenever it wants to. Don't fall into this trap. It will prevent you from learning and having fun.