Med pair OESD + FD on turn
Playing the AI on APT ($10/$20).
UTG with 8h8s.
Call BB, MP (loose passive) raises to $100, SB (tight passive) calls $100 (I call the raise). So I called $80 into a $220 pot (right?) -- is this call a "leak?" Stacks are ~$2k.
Pot now $320.
3-way flop: 9h Ah 7c -- checks all around.
Turn: 10h. SB checks to me, $320 (still) in pot.
"Advice" button says to check. I am thinking a $160-200 semi-bluff likely gets me the pot and chases away 99 or TT hands (although MP left to act might call if he paired up the 10). For outs I figure 2 8's, 4 6's, 4 J's, and the 7 other hearts. Straight draw looks good (I have a pair of the middle card), but FD is definitely scary.
Thoughts?
(Update: I semi-bluffed $200 on the turn and both folded. MP was holding KcQs, and SB was holding AcJs. "Peek at End" is checked, and river "would have been" a brick (3d), not that this matters).
Comments
How big was your stack at the beginning of the hand? Do you remember approximately how big your opponents' stacks were? Just wondering what kind of implied odds you are getting if you flop your set.
Obviously some good fortune on the flop that the player holding the A was the SB who does a standard check to the preflop raiser to have everyone check behind. The turn card is obviously great for you and I also would have, given the passive flop play, likely ignored the check advice and also bet and I like the size of about 60% of the pot as it is sizable enough to chase out most draws and even some marginally made hands, and in this case, even AJ.
And as you say, even if you get called you have outs. However, just how many outs you can confidently count is in question. As you say the flush draw is scary as the Kh, Qh, and Jh could still be out there and if you are called all three, particularly the Kh and Jh, you know have to put in the caller's range. The two 8s are also problematic as that 4 straights the board and in this case had the AJ called your turn bet, an 8 would have completed his gut shot draw. I think you'd have to put a fair amount of Js in your opponents combined ranges as well so that card is worrisome. The 3 non-heart 6s and Js are the outs that feel the most solid about and maybe for the other 11 potential outs you list you give yourself half of those (given they have showdown value but are tricky if someone bets into you) which still brings you a respectable 11-12 outs.
But I like the play as a pure semi-bluff to take the pot on the turn. Great result and I think very solid play.
IMO the great result was a gift. I would usually not open limp 88 with passive players at the table. Tight-Passive SB would not call PFR light but could check A >> either weak suited, check raise or trap (which some passive players do too much). Either opponent could easily check pair >8 but <A. Fear of flush was mitigated by your open check on flop. Opponents could reasonably fear that you open limped a small suited A, but the loose player could be a calling station. I would have checked the flop.
Correction to last sentence. I would have checked the turn.
The open-limp here was a set-mining strategy. I switched from KGB level to Poker Party level to get some practice playing AI's that had more "station" tendencies. On that level, if you're in LP or SB/BB, a lot of times there will be an open limp and 3 or 4+ callers by the time the preflop action is on you (lots of multi-way pots). So I was looking for a bunch of callers so I could hit a set with multi-way action or get out cheap otherwise.
Preflop was raised, but by then my pot odds are around 3:1 to call and see the flop.
Stacks were all right around 2k. I hadn't been playing that long, so everyone was probably +/- 20% of the buy-in. And it was the cash game (not tournament).
I hear you on fear of flush being mitigated. I'm still leaning toward the idea of betting the turn. 7, 9, 10 on board means an 8 or a J is a scare card for me (range considerations play into this -- KQs is a possible holding, for instance). And I'm not really feeling like going to showdown with 8's. And, if that 8 hit, I would spike my set, but 4 to a straight would be on the board.