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AA cracked
1/2 NL cash game. Effective stack 75 BB. Get AA in LP. 2 guys limp in. I raise to $7. 3 players call. Flop comes 5 3 9. I bet $15. One guy calls. Turn card is a J. He checks, I check. River is a dud. He bets $34, I call. He turns over pocket 33 for a set. Just bad luck, or am I missing something?
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I play a mix of 1/2 and 2/5 live. Also saw a similar post from you about KK with the two hands playing out in similar fashion. In this hand, with two limpers already in and the blinds yet to act, I would raise to $10 or $12 preflop. The $7 raise into 2 limpers in 1/2 invites four way pots which add a lot of variance to big pairs. I see some people overbet that situation to $15 or $20 pre, but that either scares everyone or effectively turns hand face up. In both hands you checked turn on boards that weren't particularly bad for your hands. If you still believe you are ahead of villains' range, then you are sacrificing value there. If you bet turn and get raised, then you can determine if you have been 'setted' or have run into 2 pair/str8 etc. As you described both hands, the river calls were pretty basic. By checking turn after making standard flop bet, you were not showing strength and could just have easily been getting bet into by a top pair type hand which for many 1/2 players is the nuts. If you had bet turn then been led into on the river, that would have been a different story and a much tougher call as then you are probably only beating bluffs and the occasional misplayed top pair.
When my pocket KK got cracked i had bet $20 preflop in an unraised pot. The guy who called was at best a 4 to 1 underdog if he could see the river without anymore betting. On the flop he is a 3 to 1 underdog to beat me with his pair of deuces and his 10 kicker. He certainly doesn't have the odds to call my $26 flop bet, but he does anyway and gets lucky on the turn. So these two situations are quite different in my mind. I guess in KK situation the question really is: how, if you even can, can you get rid of these parasites, while in the case of AA it's more like: what else should have i done or what clues could have possibly helped me avoid this trap? As you mention, my preflop raise was too small but some guys will call almost any bet with a small pocket pair because the feel they can stack you if they get their set on the flop and you have a big over pair to the board. And I've seen it happen time and time again in 1/2. I guess i should be happy this hand didn't cost me my whole stack but nevertheless, the guy was right to call me preflop. It only cost him $7 to get $56 out of me (both the $15 flop call and his $33 river bet were just to suck me in as he was at very little risk of being beaten) so one can say that he had the implied odds (8 to 1) to call as his odds to hit a set on the flop were about 7 to 1. Nevertheless, me not betting the turn probably saved me $25 or $30 extra. That's why you're seeing this pattern of me not betting the turn, to try to keep the pot somewhat small, especially if i don't know the opponent. Now may be it's worth betting really hard preflop, like 1/6 of the effective stack so that anyone who is set mining who would dare calling this kind of a raise would always be making a mistake. Of course nobody may ever want to call a $40 raise into an unraised preflop pot, leaving quite a bit of potential cash on the table, although it seems to me that big pairs don't have the surprise power to capture really big pots. Any idea what the average win of AA can be, in BB, over the long run?