Good read gone bad, still think play was questionable
This is a live 2-5 hand from Vegas trip. Effective stacks about $800. Villain had lost a big pot, bought back in for $500 and won a pot. I had been at table for 30 minutes was sitting pretty much at original buy in. Villain said he only had an hour or so left and intended to play. Had been very active and was somewhere between LAG and LAD (loose and drunk).
I open A10 suited from cutoff to $20 which was standard raise. Villain on button is only caller. Flop comes 10 8 2 with two of a suit (not mine). I continue for $30 and he without any hesitation fires two black chips into pot. I say 'that's a huge bet for a set.' He says "I have a pair". Given his prior play, I put him on a one pair hand as he said, while knowing he could be trying to get me to Hero Play against a set. I also thought naked draw was possible. I heavily weighted naked draw and one pair hands with random kickers. I put two pairs into set category and considered them unlikely. Top top is huge fave against his one pair hands, 2-1ish against naked draws and slight dog to pair plus draw combos.
Decided to try to get paid and shoved. I thought his range was way too wide to pass up opportunity to win big pot against him before he spewed all his buy ins. Didn't think calling an overbet like that would help as he would bomb turn anyway and I would be making same decision though could fold to a scare card that I believed hit him.
Did I define range well enough to make this a 'read play'? Expanded concept is playing big pots with small pot hands against tilted or drunk aggressive players. That's to me is the real question as to whether I made correct move. Would post this question regardless of result, which I gave away in title.
Comments
If you think this is a workable range for the player type:
JJ-TT,88,22,T9o-T8o,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,KhQh,KhJh,Kh9h,QhJh,Qh9h,9h6h,7h6h,6h5h,5h4h
then you have 48% EQ, a coin flip really. EV probably brings it to 50/50 with the $ already in the pot. Currently behind 19 of 66 combos. Being that you have little fold equity on your shove, looks like you could take either the fold or shove line and break even. If your bankroll is ok with the variance then it's not a terrible play, but usually best to back away from break even spots for more than 100 bb.
Maniacs are good for the game. But gotta be ready for the ride when you decide get involved with them.
I really don't think you can profitably fold there. With all the info you provided about the villain being drunk, or at least drinking, with limited time left in "Vegas Baby" and being at the top of your range on this flop - I just don't think you can fold there. This does kind of suck because we know we're in a thin spot against a random maniac, but, we just can't fold. I also agree with jamming as calling the turn bet just puts you in the same spot with no additional info - you're happy to get it in here with top/top against a gambling drunk - if he actually has you beat somehow (to which you could have outs as well), or sucks out in some way... #goodgame.
A few years back, I would specifically choose cash games on days of popular tournament series in poker room near home. Would look to play hands similar to this with someone who had busted out of tournament event and was steamed. Looking for that opponent really does fit what both you guys have commented, its picking thin spots and playing much larger pots than you normally would with them. If I made a mistake in this hand, it was being in too big a hurry to play a pot with this guy before he gave his money to someone else and left. Jamming a 50/50 ball is more like a 20bb tourney play than a full buy in cash play. I still want to play against tilt guy or drunk guy. May need to work on my allegedly exploitive ranges a little.
Well, if you haven't been down to the Rio during WSOP then the cash games there are right up your alley! A wide spectrum of tilted tourney-bots.
Looking back over this... I agree with you the point about him only playing for an hour is pretty relevant. The beauty of this player type is that they commonly never leave the table until they've spewed away several buy ins. Giving you good opportunity to get any lost chips back. Probably leans it more towards a fold IMO.
Not that it really matters, but... was he ahead or did he hit his draw?