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Weird Advice from the MTT simulator (1 of 8)
columbo
In this MTT, I am 26 BB deep and the simulator begs me to open 89s utg.
Now I love 89s as much as the next guy, but a bit shallow for this? What does the community say?
Comments
Unless you had a dominating stack and a table full if nits near the bubble, absolutely not. Too shallow as you noted and you will likely be out of position if called. Easy fold of a pretty hand UTG 9-handed.
It is not just your stack. It is your stack relative to Villains'. You threaten to knockout or cripple the entire table. Cut off and SB have shove stacks. First decide if you will raise/fold or raise/ call those two. Then raise to 35k. It has a high probability of getting thru.
As a light raise, I prefer Axs suited for blocker reasons but this one will do. If called, you have a holding with good playability.
I raise/fold to a shove btw.
@columbo
35k to win 42k increases your stack by over 10%.
@highfive - its only rare because I'm almost never wrong
This looks like the online million or Main Event simulation so it is trying to replicate a decent field somewhat deep into the event. With a medium stack at this point in the tournament, this hand is asking for trouble. You aren't going to have the equity to call if shoved on and at 10BB, the SB should be shoving a ton of hands. HJ is also in very shovable territory and in a better spot to do so if hero opens and then folded to him. That's a great spot to shove to pick up the open plus the blinds and antes. Hero does not want to call off another 33% of his stack or more here. Unnecessary risk and there should be better spots for it. This hand can't even take a 3-bet OOP at this depth. Now I don't know how the table was playing but this is just too weak a hand UTG to open, IMO. If you do get called, you will likely have to play a hand that under realizes its equity at these stack depths and further under realizes if OOP.
Its a pretty hand and a possible open at 100BB on a passive nitty table UTG. It would be ambitious but possible. In this spot, I think the play is too optimistic. At 26BB, the best case scenario is everyone folds but you are giving such a great price to the BB that its almost a mandatory call if he was dealt two cards. You'll see a flop with an SPR of about 3. At this SPR, top pair is effectively the nuts. 9-high is not where you want to be fooling around in these spots. You simply cannot realize your equity playing it across 3-streets so you will either have to jam flop or turn to realize your equity. You will likely be on a draw in a spot where villain is never folding top pair or even 2nd pair with any draw. Why in the world would hero voluntarily put himself in this spot when he doesn't have to? At 26BB he still will have many better opportunities to steal or re-steal or squeeze without making this open. I am not a fan of calling off my tournament life on a draw unless I absolutely have to. I don't want to be bluff-shoving for my tournament life either, especially since a good player won't fold most hands that connected to the flop in any way here.
At these depths, high cards over realize and suited connectors under realize. If the goal is simply to steal the blinds, the open size is wrong - it needs to be larger. For reasons already stated, hero does not want to take a flop here, especially OOP. Therefore, I consider the advice from the advisors (all 28) to be simply wrong. I doubt any strong tournament pro would say differently, again assuming the field is strong.
1Warlock has spoken
Fold and wait for a better spot? You popped in the cassette tape to listen to Prince's " Poker like it's 1999". Didnt you?)
29 bigs is enough to still play poker. 7 mid stacks and 2 shorties is a good mix to tighten everyone up. So any raise and just fold. If he is called, it doesnt cost more. Play poker.
A Utg raise will discourage lite action even from the shorties. (It should)
I say hero can still have a raise/ fold range and risking 35k to win 42k is worth it. Pre action pot is 42k! I recommended a raise higher than the bots to discourage the bb. Besides being called wide is good. Right?
Position. The Villains will likely range him stronger than 89s mostly because he has people like you at the table " waiting for a better spot."
Are you saying at this stack depth, there is no raise/fold range? Only a raise/call range?
@1warlock @columbo
No. There are raise/call ranges at this depth. All I'm saying is that this part of anyone's range has diminished value at these depths and since it cannot stand a shove by HJ or SB, I wouldn't open it here. I'd rather open K10o from the HJ than 8/9s here at these depths.
Delusions? How dare you. Guards, off with his head!
LOL - always fun
Obviously I am with 1warlock on this one, but I dont follow the 1999 reference at all. This isnt a cash game and we're not 100+ blinds deep like the newer live MTT structures.
"Are you saying at this stack depth, there is no raise/fold range? Only a raise/call range?" - in position UtG? Yes.
Well If you play tourneys, you are going to spend a lot of time around 30 bigs. Putting pressure on other players is better than "waiting for a better spot." Playing is based on more than just my current two cards. Understanding the situation the other players are in is important too. Middling stacks cant playback much because the threat of becoming a short stack looms.
It is a light raise. It is not a multi-street hand. It cant call a shove. Its worth a raise here.
There are raise/fold ranges but they are much stronger hands than this for the SPR's you will see postflop