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AA cracked by 53
I'm playing $1-2 with a button straddle of $5. I raise to $15 with AA in LJ. CO and Button call. Flop is 55J. I bet $25, only button calls. Turn is 2, I check turn to look weak. He bets $45, and I call. River is a blank and I check again to induce another bet. He bets max, $100. I call and lose to 53. This player was pretty splashy and bluffy, but could I have gotten away or fine as played?
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hi hi aaizona
wow that sucks...
villain calls your $15 pre-flop raise with 5 3? hummmm
maybe stay at that table and play against that guy, and win your money plus much more back?
A rationale for folding is that villain doesn't have bluffs here. A 5, a J , a 2 ( some would float this flop with various pairs) KK, QQ. Most likely he has a 5 or a J.
I guess if it was your rent money you could fold. Otherwise call.
The frustrating thing of low stakes is this type of hand. It's tilting but it is also what makes it so profitable.
Krista is right. Reload. You are at a good table. Maybe try to move to get position on this villain and 3bet often. Make him play big pots with his junk. He just got lucky this time. Odds of flopping trips are 1.35%.
@aarizona
I think @highfive is right about being priced in to call. My only observation is that at low stakes, players fear paired boards like Ebola. When they not only call but then lead out, they typically have it. Frequencies mean nothing in these spots and neither do ranges. When they fire into you, they almost always have trips, at a minimum. Here he could have had some J's but only AJ combos bet and you are blocking that hand. There are players I could exploitatively fold to on the turn here but vs most players you are calling down and losing.
To illustrate the point, I had a friend do an experiment at lower stakes online. In raised pots where the board was paired, if it came around to him and no one had bet yet, he would fire full-pot with any 2 cards. That move is 100% wrong by theory if he was playing against decent players. Over a sample of 10,000+ hands (total not paired), this move got through over 80% of the time. It had to work 50.1% of the time to be profitable with any 2 cards. He was printing money in these spots over the course of many months.
The point is that most low stakes players react with outsized caution on a paired board, unless they have it. Will some ingenious player figure this out once in a while and run some bluffs? They sure will but I think the move is to exploitatively over-fold in these spots. The other possible move that could have saved you a few $ is to check-raise small on the turn. If you are called (or raised as they like to do), you are beat and can fold to any river other than an A. In this spot, you wouldn't have saved much because the pot was bloated to begin with but these are very good spots to try small raises with. Again, totally at odds with optimal theory but at an exploitative game, theory barely matters. They will have all sorts of hands that theory says they shouldn't and do all sorts of things that theory says are wrong. So even when theory says an overpair is effectively the nuts at SPR's this low, sometimes you can exploit your opponents by denying them value and folding.
Great notes, @1warlock and @highfive . I especially like the check-raise move on the turn. I'll certainly take them all into consideration in the future. And thanks for the condolences, @krista , lol.
"To illustrate the point, I had a friend do an experiment at lower stakes online. In raised pots where the board was paired, if it came around to him and no one had bet yet, he would fire full-pot with any 2 cards. That move is 100% wrong by theory if he was playing against decent players. Over a sample of 10,000+ hands (total not paired), this move got through over 80% of the time. It had to work 50.1% of the time to be profitable with any 2 cards. He was printing money in these spots over the course of many months."
Ho, Crapola, THANK YOU for that low stakes GEM. CC I am going to call it "The Bust or Ebola Play."