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A better flush??
Hi all, I was recently playing a live, 9 handed 1/2 NL Hold'em cash game in Atlantic City. I was the SB and get dealt Q 8 of diamonds. Everybody folds to the cutoff and the button who limp in. I decide (stupidly) to complete the blind and the BB checks. The flop comes 3 9 T of diamonds, giving me a flush and a gut straight flush draw. I check, so does the BB. The cutoff bets $10 and the button raises to $25. Uncomfortably I call, but the cutoff then reraises to $100! The button folds and I tank for a couple of mns trying to understand thus guy's betting sequence. I decide to save my cash for a better hand and fold, but I'm still puzzled by this hand. Any thought anyone?
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What was your remaining stack size, and was cutoff all in, or did CO have chips behind? If so, how much. if I am calculating correctly, looks like there is $168 in the pot after CO raises to the $100. Assuming, CO is all in, then looks like your pot equity, if you call, is 37%, rounding off decimals, $100/($100 + $168). Do you have any indication what type of player CO is? With everyone limping in, CO could be protecting a set, maybe a T9 two pair, maybe limped with JJ, and of course, possible limped with AXdiamonds, and maybe AToff with A diamonds. Against that specific range, and with that flop, you are 79.6% to win. Again, assuming CO is all in at that point, and no specific read, I think it is a call. If take away JJ and two pair from CO range, your made flush is still 68% to win, against remaining range.
If both you and CO have lots of chips behind, a good analysis is beyond me right now, as some bad cards for you on future streets would be very problematic.
The CO still had about $100 behind, leaving me, i thought, only 2 options: go all in or fold.
I had about $250 in front of me. By taking time to think i had probably already given away the fact that i didn't have the nut flush, leaving me vulnerable to more betting on further streets.
CO was probably on the tight aggressive side
First you mention that you completed the SB "stupidly" which I imagine is just because of the incredibly difficult position that this seemingly great flop put you in. Nothing wrong with completing in that position in a $1/$2 game with deep stacks.
FastDave's analysis is very good, although I think one tweak is that you have only $75 to call not $100 correct as you already have $25 in , right? (unless he put $100 on top as opposed to raising to $100. If true, FastDave's logic is more sound as now you are at 31%. However, one complication is whether you can really include any of the Ax with A of diamond hands in the CO's range with this 3-bet. For some players certainly, but would this tight aggressive player reraise with the draw after the button's rather small raise which looks like it begs a call? Perhaps, but feels like a made hand to me, either the current nut flush or set of 9s or 3s - I think you can safely eliminate pockets 10s as a tight aggressive player is unlikely to be limping from the CO with pocket 10s.
I agree with you that calling is not a great option, to call makes the pot $243 and when the CO has only $100 behind I think it is highly unlikely that the CO does anything but get it in on the turn, perhaps even if the board pairs. Which then means you are getting over 3 to 1 on a call and are in a similar position of not knowing whether you are drawing to a single out.
Holding the math of the CO's hand range aside for a moment, it comes down to me as to whether it is far more likely that the CO is raising with the nut flush to charge all two pair and set hands to draw on him or protecting the set himself (with the smaller possibility of the Ax flush draw also looming). Now knowing the player it is hard to tell, but in the absence of that at $1/$2 games with how little he had behind I'd lean more toward the made nut flush. The other factor is that you only have $27 invested thus far, and any action other than a fold is committing another $175 to this hand which is to me a coin flip at best as being a 1 outer.
Very interesting hand!
I think the odds are that an unknown TAG does not open limp from the CO with 99, TT or more than 3 small Ace diamond combos and a few more King diamond combos. He might limp in with 33, KK, AA, 78, and the 4 bet could be a semi bluff. Now you have to worry about the BB, who could have taken the free card preflop with more Ace and King diamond combos than the CO. Without Flopzilla my guess is that you have at least as many ways to loose as win and not much in the pot to protect. I would be thinking about reducing volatility which can make me crazy.
Interesting comment by mactheknife about reducing volatility, which is sometimes difficult for me, and something I need to think more about when I am in a tricky hand.
I personally think that you made the wise decision in folding in this spot. Given the action before the CO raise to $100 ($10 CO bet, $25 reraise from the button, and a flat call by you) I firmly believe that the CO has you beat. When the CO raises to $100 here he is saying that he is not afraid of the button or your flat call. Your flat call here is very strong. Flat calling a raise here out of position while not closing the action is strong. If the CO is a competent player he would recognize this. If he is a weak player and you think he would raise any flush or set here then I think you would have to shove. So player skill / perception does come into play here (as it always does) but playing in a vacuum I would fold too.
Thank you all for your inputs, they've been very insightful. I'll never know what the CO's hand was but reading your various analyses/comments make me a bit more at peace with my decision.