Should I have re-raised/shoved?
I was in day 2 of a multi-day1 tournament with about $210K (70BB). I raised (UTG+2) to 2.5x BB with AQo (A of clubs). Two callers including a late arrival to my left with about twice my stack.
Flop came QQ9, 2 clubs.
I bet $11K into an $18K pot; the player to my left raised to $30K.
What would you do?
Best Answer
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1warlockCall and re-evaluate the turn. I just went through some similar hands with a pro who plays high-stakes cash and tournaments. The GTO-based line would be to bet at a high frequency at paired flops as initial aggressor but with lower sizes. Its harder with multiple callers but IMO the C-bet (with or without the Q) would have been more in the 6-8K range. As it played out, I don't see any reason to shove at all so I would have just called and seen the turn. Likely you are still ahead and in the rare instances where raiser does have 99 or a club draw, you have redraws against those hands. I don't want to scare away hands like TT, JJ, QJ, KQ, JT and so on. A shove would rep trips at a minimum and so would scare away all inferior hands that you want calling. It would not fold out Q9 or 99 of course so the only thing it would accomplish is folding out weaker hands and being called by stronger hands.
How did the hand wind up playing out?
Answers
I did, in fact, call the raise.
Turn came 8 of clubs. I checked, opponent checked.
River was inconsequential. I bet out 50K and was called. Opponent had JTs (spades) for a straight. Probably should have checked it down, given the wet board.
Ugh, unlucky turn. The worst cards for you were the K, followed by the 8. IMO, you could have bet less on the river as a blocking bet. Had you checked, you would likely have faced a value bet by villain, which you really would have to call if it was within reason. Some might suggest continuing to barrel on the turn but I wouldn't like that line at all. No reason to turn top set top kicker into a bluff, especially in a tournament. Really glad you posted the hand, despite the results for you.
I would have shoved. I don't like the two clubs and the fact that he reraised but 99 is the only hand that has you beat. If he calls, then that's probably what he has. If he has anything else he'll probably fold. If he does fold you increase your stack by 25%. Not such a terrible outcome.