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Call or fold?
QQ utg. 1-3 game I raise to 13. One caller, flop AA6 rainbow. Check Check. Turn 8 for 2 hearts. I bet 20 villain raise to 50 I call. River A. No str8 or flush on board. I check villian bets 70. Pot is 129 and costs me 70 to call. Only hand beats me is Ax, KK. No preflop reraise so i discount KK. Call or fold?
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Old adage ' no one folds a boat' is wrong. Here it is too strong. Many 1,3 players call KK scared you raised withh AA. ( yes some players are scared with kk). But here i call and expect to be shown a baby ace. Sometimes you are too strong and have to pay off.
His small raise and bet on river says Ax. How does he know you don't have the ace? Answer: he has it.
River bet says nuts too. Not a bet that will knock you off many pairs.
IMO, its a pretty easy call and I'd expect to be ahead most of the time. Villain could have the A but it is unlikely. He could have 99, TT or JJ as pocket pairs that would have checked back the flop. He more likely has something like 7/8s, 8/9s or any number of other 8-combos. Heck, at these stakes he could have all sorts of stuff, including a busted medium flush draw that he now needs to rep a made hand with. Now @highfive could be right and he may have quads but not often enough to make me fold QQ here.
It was an interesting comment about the size of the river bet villain made. @highfive is reading this as strength and that is a possibility. However, if he was going to size his river bet down for disguise, why would he have raised your turn bet? With this in mind, I am leaning more towards villain having 8x and not the nuts or a busted flush draw. It would make some sense for the villain to bet his made hand this way and to have shipped the river on the nuts or on a busted draw.
Thanks for responding! I did call and paid off the unsuited Ax.
Blech - sorry to hear he had it. I think most of us pay off in that spot. My reads are just way off lately.
So what can we learn in game from this hand?
Ax offsuit is way too wide of a call range to UTG open range.
If hero confirms wide range of said villan in other hands, hero can look to 3bet iso this villan when in position. Exploit his wide, loose range.
Any hand shown gives hero info. Think about what the holding means about villans' range. Then what strat can I employ to win his/her chips. @duker12