Is this a good villan fold?
Game 1,2 no limit 9 handed.
Villan has moved twice at table. 30ish russian guy. Repeatedly bragging, " I know what I'm doing" in poker.
Effective stacks $348
Villan raises to 11 utg
Mp calls
Button calls
Hero calls
Pot 44 after rake
Flop As Qh 9d
Hero checks
Villan cbets 20 Mp calls button calls
Pot 104 action to hero who checkraises to
100. Pot 204. Action back to villan. Looks confused. Stares at board. After a time hero thinks villan has an Ace. Villan slowly calls. Mp folds. Button folds. Pot 304.
Turn card 6c. Hero rechecks stack. $227
After a bit ships 227 into 304.
Action back to villan. Suddenly throws cards in muck and immediately leaves table. Hero wins pot.
Since villan left dealer peeks and says villan folded AQ.
Notes: hero cannot have AA-10, 10 as hero would 3bet those. 66 highly unlikely after cbet and 2 calls, hero folds that 99.9%
Hero's likely range: AQ, Q9, 99, A9, JTs,
opinions?
Will return later to reveal hero's holding
Cant have Ak. No 3bet
Comments
Were you in SB or BB? I like this exercise - should be fun.
SB
Hmmm - I have a really really small flatting range from the SB, especially facing an UTG open. In your spot I'm likely either set mining with 22-99 or have a drawing hand that plays great multiway and can smash single pair hands. With the action here, I wouldn't check-raise Q9 or 99 vs an UTG open. The only hand I see doing this with would be J10s (would prefer spades but may consider anything other than clubs).
So, I'm going with the J10s and will go out on a limb and call the suit as spades. I'd call down with the only set possible (9's) and with my Q9s combos.
My biggest question is how the hell does someone fold top 2 on a totally benign turn for a bet of less than pot? Even if he's facing a set of 9's he still has 4 outs to the nuts. I couldn't find a fold there in his spot given the action as played. In fact, I probably put you all-in after your check-raise on the flop rather than call.
This is a rainbow flop, so such a raise with JT seems a stretch for just an open ended straight draw (would be a very impressive semi bluff though). AQ seems unlikely as (as we know after the fact) there are only 4 combinations of that hand left. A9, most likely suited, is a good contender. Fits the preflop call and the raise post flop. The shove would be a bit of a stretch, as one might be wary of the Villain holding AQ. To me the most plausible hand is pocket 99. It fits the smooth call preflop, the big raise on the flop and the turn shove. The slight hesitation to jam may come from Hero reading the possibility that the Villain has QQ (unlikely has he would have probably shoved he flop after facing the $100 raise) .
Well looks as if that's a wrap on the responses. It appears to have morphed into " guess hero's hand " but I actually wanted to analyze the fold. Warlock addressed it somewhat.
If one looks at Hero's range, there is only 1 hand that Villan is behind. The board is so non-threatening. I think it's a happy call with outs in case Hero has 99.
A fold here is similar to folding top boat because " he might have quads". Of course APT would say good fold. Why? Hero has 99 here.
Warlock is correct that a call down is in order if not for muti-way pot. I c/r to push out or get value from other villans. Someone might be willing to push JT or shove AQ, A9 etc. One never knows. It is 1,2. ) Also big C/r to set up smallish shove.
Villan #1 utg can have AA,QQ here. I'm never folding.
So with a small shove and the non-threatening board, its a call.
My conclusion was villan made a scared money fold.
Last note: MDF says villan is supposed to call. It's a correct call by the math too.
Minimum Defense Frequency (mdf)
Please comment on my play.
I dropped the ball on this one - sorry. I should have learned that playing poker and/or posting online are bad ideas when on muscle relaxers (torn abdominal muscle from working out) Y'all have a few more days to take advantage of me in case you wanted to get a cash game going or sell a time-share or something.
I discounted the other 2 players and only focused on villain v hero. That changed everything. Including them would put 99 in my check-raise range here on that board, along with 3 combos of J10s at some frequency. I have a question about your donk-betting range - do you have one if you don't have the betting lead going to the flop? Under most circumstances I don't but multi-way pots are different beasts than HU. Would you have led into the field on a wetter flop, say with a flush draw present as well?
With a brick turn and those remaining stacks, there's noting left to do but ship it. For the life of me I can't understand his fold. While I don't place much importance on MDF in low stakes live games, this is just too tight. What exactly do you need to be holding to make a call? As I said above, in his spot I'm shoving over your check-raise most of the time in that spot. You could be getting frisky with a draw and I want to charge you or you could have A9 (very doubtful unless you are terrible) or Q9. You don't always or even most of the time have exactly 99 so I cannot fold.
Question - 99 is the very top of your range in this spot. Are you balancing this with any other hands? Would you have played the J10s the same way? Do you give balanced play much weight at these stakes live at all?
Final question - since the dealer peeked at villains mucked hand, did you ask him to see what the river card would have been?
Home game then. Name your adult beverage. I'll bring it. As a courtesy of course for the host. With alcohol enhanced MRs, i might have an edge or reduce yours at least.
No rabbit hunting policy but i have noticed big tippers get a peak if requested.
This hand occurred as wsop circuit passed thru. Asked many players and yet to find one that said folding there was correct. One was a kinda big winner on the circuit.
I almost never donk bet. I expect high frequency c-betting especially from this villan. Hiding hand strength leaves the door open for strong draws to 3bet the cbet. I find that leading mutes in position player action. I actually check dark a notable amount from the blinds. Im more of c/r for value and c/r bluff player.
I enjoyed the" terrible" comment because i would c/r all except JTs umm 10%. I dont consider a lone OESD that strong. Why? 2.02% chance to flop 2 pair. 1.85% if hero doesn't have pair in the hole. Not thinking 2 players flopped 2 pair.
If flop comes out of utg range, then i might c/r draws. Try to push him/her off 1 pr.
I don't give MDF much thought at these stakes either. Just pointing out, that the call would be correct from various decision points. Good thing he didn't stay because had i discovered this fold, i would consider him a spot and gone into attack mode.
I 'd say i've been balancing more and more with success. You should see the perplexed looks i get when I turn over strong hands played differently. Cuz " checking means weakness" of course.
Open raise flop TPTK and check. Hit trips on turn check. Position player keeps firing. Check river. Check back. His mouth drops open when i flip my hand over.
Thx Warlock
I'll run some equity sims on A9, Q9 in that spot. Hope you're right actually. That means i can improve with your help.
Recovering LAG fish, Tony
@highfive - very funny. Add alcohol and you'd need to tie me to the chair to keep me upright.
You didn't say whether you would lead into the field if the flop was really wet though. I hate leading most times but if you had added a flush draw to that flop, I would have.
As to the "terrible" comment - If I'm trying to range you from the villain's perspective, I can see Q9s showing up out of the SB on occasion but I discount A9. Q9s has some playability from there multiway but A9 is just a horror-show to flat from that position. If I've discounted a hand from a range pre-flop, I can't reintroduce it on the flop as a possibility. Of course I can be wrong (and often am) but I try to stick to this discipline street after street.
I also enjoy seeing people wonder how the heck I show up with certain hands from certain spots. Incorporating some GTO based strategy to the game allows me to have excellent board coverage from most positions. That makes it a whole lot harder for people to check-raise me on flops that don't ordinarily fit the opening ranges of people only playing A's, K's and Broadway cards. Having a good check-back range is also great for getting value. If you are only checking weakness, you are toast.
As to check-raising the J10s combos, its something I would do on occasion. In this spot I'd do it with the 3 combos that have backdoor flush draws as well so I can continue barreling on many turns. Then again, its more something I'd do in position so maybe not. I have to have some bluffing hands here or all my bets are value and therefore exploitable. Of all the hands that I could have, the J10s combos are the ones I'd balance my value range with. If I hit or pick up an equity monster on the turn, I can pick up a lot of value from this play. It also allows me to credibly bluff certain rivers when I miss.
Apologize. I check my entire range. Then C/R where appropriate. I find balancing leads is difficult. I decided some time ago that checking is best way for balance/ deception. I do recall recently leading when i flopped a rainbow board str8. A villan was controlling things too often because everyone kept checking to him. I wanted to disrupt game flow. His eyes glazed over when I led. He couldn't humbly fold for once so he raised. I jammed of course. Then he folded. It helped me get a big 14 bigs bet from him.
And going forward he started checking back some thus allowing me to get free cards.
So i check almost always maybe lead as a tactical move not a GTO move.
No worries @highfive - I was curious. I've seen very strong players advocate for having a 100% checking range. I've heard others suggest balancing in some leads, especially on wet flops where they want to deny equity. For those who are ok with leading, they suggest protecting the check range with some nutted hands. Finding the correct balance in all of these spots is beyond me right now so I'm winging it most of the time.
@1warlock I used the Winning Odds Tool to input a few ranges for villan and me.
I'm a massive favorite against a 4.6% range for villan if my range is AQ,A9, Q9 on that flop. A significant fav adding JTs. So yes i checkraise those with 99.
His range is much wider than that. More like any pair any broadway at least. It is 1,2.)
If you meant preflop ->
Then I put in his 4.6 against all suited As not Including AKs. Its 37% against it. Since i'm getting 3.3 to 1 excluding blinds, suited aces are a call all day just on direct odds. Snap call considering implied odds. Big should call too with any slightly good hand once i call. My name for that is expected odds. He didn't so not relevant here.
Summary : calling A9s is not terrible. Its a good snap call along with all suited As.
Thanks for prompting me to do the work. HTH
Tony - this is why we play the game. I can see where you are coming from but odds and straight equity calculations only go so far. One has to be able to realize their equity and certain hands are more able to do that than others by position. There is also the phenomenon of negative implied odds which applies to hands such as A9. Avoiding hands that play poorly from certain spots and so are unlikely to realize their equity is important. Avoiding hands with negative implied odds is also important. For these reasons, despite raw equity figures, I do not think playing A9 from the SB in this spot is +EV.
Raw equity is a great number if you are talking about going all-in pre-flop and seeing all 5 cards. If we have to play through the hand, we have to consider the factors that enhance and impede our ability to realize our equity. Playability is a huge factor, especially when OOP. Implied odds are certainly a factor but these odds run both positive and negative. Easily dominated hands such as A6-A9 have hugely negative implied odds when facing EP opens. K10 and other such hands have the same issues.
Anyway, good topic to go over and always happy to examine and reexamine the game. I want to challenge and be challenged on just about everything so that I can further my understanding of the theory and the practice.
I have to come clean. I wouldn't call the baby aces. I'd 3bet them. Ha
Check my comment in New Scenario suggestions. I didn't @ you so system didn't notify you. @1warlock
LOL - I'd also rather attack from the SB with some hands than flat call with them. They fall into the "too bad to call but too good to fold" category so are great 3-bet bluff hands to balance out my value range with. That being said, if you had 3-bet the pot from the SB, I would include some A2-5s but I still wouldn't have A9 in your range. Its just a funky hand that has very limited use, IMO.
Good suggestion on the combat trainer thread - I wonder why that wasn't the way it was set up in the 1st place?