What does this overbet mean?
1/2 NL Cash Game at the local casino. Usual loose passive crowd. I'm sitting with a $340 stack after a couple of hours of pretty decent playing. I'm dealt pocket Tens in the BB. Four players limp in, including the SB whom I've had to battle with a couple of times heads up. I decide to raise to $18 (I like to bet hard in 1/2 NL games as any standard raise only prompts everybody to join the fray and you've accomplished nothing). I know I can pick up the pot undisputed (I've done before with lesser hands) and if I'm heads up I'll still have the lead. Everyone folds to the SB who calls. The pot is now $42 (minus the rake). The flop comes 2 3 4 rainbow. I'm expecting the SB to check to me but to my surprise he bets $71. He's only got about the same amount left in his stack so I figure he's pretty much pot committed. Which means: do I really want to commit $150 on a pair of Tens? I think for a moment to analyze the situation: he could have any pair 5 to 10 and be trying to protect his hand (JJ+ are unlikely as I think he would have raised with those, although he could have slow played AA). He could have 22 to 44, which would give him a set, but wouldn't he check to let me C-bet and at least extract some more value out of the hand? I doubt that he would have called my raise with 56 because that's way too speculative a hand to play heads up (but you never know...). And finally he could have called my raise with A5 (suited or not), giving him a flopped straight. So I was baffled, and not really being able to further narrow down his hand I folded. Would anyone have played this differently and have a different read on this? Thanks
Comments
To me it means stregth. Good fold. 1-2 players not known for huge bluffs generally.
You are behind many hands here.
JJ-AA, 22-44, A5, 2 prs
What are his bluffs? There are a few. Ax, OESD etc.
Seems as if you are behind too often to call a big bet.
He knows you are unlikely to have a set unless you are the type to 3bet 22-44.
Don"t agree with his play. He lost a bet since you most surely would have c- bet this board.
C/R seems right to me.
Great play if it was a bluff.
May be this bet, which seems too big to make sense, is made to suck me in and get me pot committed. Once I call this bet, he knows I pretty much have to call if he shoves the turn. Couldn't get myself to put that much money in with a pair of tens.
Yep. Thought about that after I posted. You likely were facing a turn shove. If no ten drops, same decision for remainder of your stack.
Note: just saw a similar hand analyzed by a high level pro. His summary was call 55 fold pairs above that until QQ. Hand a little different in that hero was only facing a pot bet.
He would have folded for a smaller bet, so good fold.
Interesting approach. Staying in with 55 obviously has the benefit of having outs. The puzzling thing to me is the limp before calling my raise. I would see that with any pair 22 through TT but anything bigger (except possibly AA as a slow play, which I would profoundly dislike but some people do it) warrants a raise, don't you think?
Yep. Plus 55 blocks 5,6.
Not raising AA is wasteful. Equity likely goes under 50% with 3 villians in the hand. Too tricky.
Your stack is enough to set mine with 234s.
I have folded 9s in this spot.
I like your fold here. He limped behind 3 others originally so he could have all sorts of funky hands that hit this flop hard. I'd figure he doesn't have the nuts or he'd check back to you so probably something like A2-A4, 5/7 or maybe even 3/4. For all we know he could have had 66-99. In spots where I am totally unsure of where I am an facing a situation that is likely going to be for stacks, I'm ok folding. I'm sure I've folded the best hand many times and I can live with that.
That's exactly my approach. In the financial markets they say: "When in doubt, stay out". When I'm really confused by the action and can't figure out what's going on I'd rather fold. It might not be the right approach at higher stakes or in online games but in low stakes live games I think it works more often than not.