Shove or call?
1/2 NL cash game at the local casino. Typical low stake table, mostly loose passive. I have about $125 in front of me. I get dealt KhQh in UTG+3. UTG+1 folds, UTG+2, a decent player with a large stack (about $350) who's capable of raising from any position with a broad range of hands, raises to $10. I haven't seen a half decent hand in a couple of hours so I decide to give this one a shot. Two other players (the BB and the SB, a loose canon who's already lost $1,400 at the table - yes, this is a 1/2 game...) call. The pot is $40. The flop is 5h3hAd, giving me a pretty strong flush draw. The SB, right out of the box (but that's not unusual for him), bets $15. He's left with about $70 behind. The BB folds and the UTG+2 raises to $40. I think he's probably trying to protect TP good kicker here but there's a good chance that the SB is going to re-raise all in whatever I do. Is this a shove or just a call situation?
Comments
This an interesting spot. SPR and implied odds are what should drive your decision here.
Given the action, your assessment that UTG+2 has TP+ is likely correct. SB probably has something too. So you are on a nine-out flush draw.
It's 40 to you and the pot is 95, giving you about 2.3:1 expressed odds. That's not enough for nine outs, which need 4:1 expressed odds.
However you have 115 behind with a 95 pot, so your SPR is only about 1.2. If you continue in this hand, you will be pot-committed. So your expressed odds are not as important as your implied odds. With two cards to come you need implied odds of 2:1. With 95 in the pot and 115 behind your implied odds are just shy of 2:1 -- if SB folds.
A shove by you is not truly a semibluff here. Semibluffs need fold equity to make them +EV plays. You have no fold equity here. When you called the preflop raise you capped your range enough so that UTG+2 should know that his TP+ is likely good right now. Your shove will give him at least 3:1 calling odds. He is not folding, even to your shove. SB might be too sticky to fold too. To make a long story short, you are simply playing the odds in this situation.
If you call and SB continues, this will (barely) give you the implied odds you need to continue and then he merely calls for an additional 25. If SB shoves, you'll definitely (narrowly) have the implied odds. Then you can reshove or call a shove after UTG+2 makes his play and the action comes back to you.
If you shove, you will probably fold SB out of the hand and thus make it a negative EV play for you. Calling looks better than shoving, only because you need SB to continue so that you'll have the right payoff after you get the rest of your stack in. It's a very close shave no matter what SB does.
Of course, you could fold if high variance and thin edges aren't your cup of tea.
UTG+2's bet sizing is what led you down this rabbit hole. It would be interesting to know if UTG+2 selected his bet sizes with all this in mind, or if this was a lucky accident for him. If he had all this in mind or if his habits are finely tuned to manufacture this kind of close call for his opponents, this is a guy you want as a poker friend. Strike up a conversation next time you see him.
Thanks. I ended up folding there but in retrospect I thought it was a mistake not to call, especially because the SB was such a loose player and was very likely to provide me with the right odds. The SB did shove with 52o, and the UG+2 called, showing AcJc The turn was Ah giving UTG+2 a set and the river did not change anything. I appreciate you putting my afterthought into a more analytical framework though.
Monkeysystem has Ed Millers theory spot on but not many players have the ability [including me ]to make those calculations on the fly. If they do I don't want to be at that table. Let me know what casino you play at Monkeysystem.
I don't have the ability to to make these calculations at the table either. This is the kind of off-table analysis that helps us refine our instincts and develop better rules of thumb.
I play MTT's at Potowatomi in Milwaukee, and Ho-Chunk in Baraboo, WI.
"...capable of raising......with a broad range of hands."
3bet -> ship the flop.
3bet to 40. Big stack guy calls. Pot 80ish. You have 85 back. Ship.
-1400 guy may call anyway.
Always have a hard time 3 betting into an EP raiser without a premium hand, especially if I 'm in EP or early MP myself. Not sure I can get over that hurdle just yet. I would be more comfortable doing that with a pocket pair.
Do it on the simulator here. It'll help you see what happens. Configure the simulator not to record your hands. Select a medium difficulty game and configure the bots to above average aggressiveness. Open and three bet with a 100% range. It's good postflop hand-reading practice too.
Thanks for the tip
Great idea. You can also set it to deal KQs every hand. Then raise or 3bet it every time for practice. See what happens.
Also go to:
My Reports/menu/performance/hands
It gives a profitability report on all 169 hands as played on this site.
Click KQs to see a comparison of how you play KQs to other players results. ( or any hand )
I was surprised to find I was hugely underperforming with KQs. No fix given but I started 3betting liberally. Now i have reversed my results and become quite profitable with KQs.
It's a good way to find any problem hand(s) one might have.