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Flop - While I think your flop call of the Villain's raise is justifiable, and likely most players' most likely move, it brings up whether a shove was preferable. If I put into the odds calculator (https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/winning-percentage-odds-calculator) (a pretty restricted range for the Villain, mostly hands that the Villian is made on hands flop - AA, KK, KQs, KQo, KJs, 22, 33, and a few big pairs they could be testing but stiill ahead QQ, JJ, and 10-10 and then a couple of bluffs, say suited connectors J10 and 10-9 and 9-8, you are still nearly a coin flip to win the hand and are getting better than 2-1 on a call (calling $84 into a pot of $179). Of course that's if you see both cards, so if you just consider the turn your equity is more like 25% so more like 3 -1 if you assume you have to fold to a big turn bet. But as you will not always have to if the player even with a made hand may not want to bet every street without a monster like a set you can likely figure in a bit more equity as you will see two cards in at least some situations. Even if you imagine no more money goes in the pot and say you win 40% of the time, as you fold to some big turn bets as opposed to getting to showdown the call has a +EV of about $21 ($1790.40 minus $840.60). Where it gets tricky is quantifying what the implied positive and negative odds are given that more money is likely to go in on the turn. Running sme various scenarios, calling may end up being negative EV move if you imagine that you'll be calling a lot of turn bets.
Being in position also allows you to call more easily rather than reraise. But a shove is also certainly defensible, and probably to some players preferable. If you are a nearly coin flip if you see both the turn and the river, then because of the $45 in preflop and your initial $25 flop bet, the shove is slightly profitable even without any fold equity (just doing the math quickly for being a slight underdog to exactly 50/50 I think your EV is something like $20-$35 for the shove). Then if you add in any fold equity, even at 10% your EV goes up another $7-$8 or so to take the 50/50 scenario to $42 say. If you have 30% fold equity, you are up to $57. Compare that to the range of EVs for the call and the uncertainty of those, the shove in this scenario may well be the better, although scarier move.
Turn - This is where I think you have the most difficulty. You have likely no fold equity to shove over the top, and now I think you need to assume the Villain has a made hand with a set, a K, or AA. You are heading into this river as a 4-1 underdog. You call $194 into a pot of $457 getting 2.4 to one odds. Even if you can assume the Villain will pay you off the remaining of $133 the 20% of the time you will hit the river, so the payoff is $590 not $457 your EV is still -$37 ($590 X .20-$194 X.80). If you lose this hand 4 of 5 times, the one big hit will not balance your losses. The turn is where I think you needed to leave the hand.
River - So if on the turn we have narrow the range to AA, AK, KK, 33, 22 and KQ and KJs, then the question left is does the Villain lead into you when an ace hits the board with the holdings KQ and KJ? If so that leaves you some equity and since you are getting nearly 6 to 1 on the call maybe you take that. But I do think many players default to the logic that there is just too much in the pot to fold. Seems like its true and perhaps the player is bluffing or holds a hand you just sucked out on. But in this case I would think if the ace does hurt the Villain he may just want to check-call because he does have some showdown value with KQ and KJ and hopes you just check behind. Which starts to make it very unlikely they are leading out with anything less than 2 pair, specifically AK. That logic may actually get you to a fold.
Thanks for sharing the hand! Really interesting one.
Thank you for the detailed response! I think the turn is where I got myself into a tough spot.
I think this is his opening range, assumes no air
77+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo+
On the flop, I block a lot of combos in this range, so the modified range:
KK, AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, QJs, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs
I'm have ~63% equity here after the flop, I think it might have been good to shove against his raise, however he would not fold out enough combos to make this profitable, I'd be left with around ~47% equity. If he had some bluffs in his range, then I would be ahead slightly.
AdAc,AhAc,AsAc,KdKc,KhKc,KsKc,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,KhQh,KsQs,AdJd,QdJd,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,KdQc,KhQc,KsQc
That Ad on the river takes a lot of combs out:
AhAs, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AhJh, AsJs, QdJd, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc
Now I am WAY behind this range ~33%
I think going all in after the flop bet would have been the best line here. Calling on the turn and river was not the optimal play.
i think you played it just fine...if you wanted to play it different just get it all in on the flop or turn but that's it...the draw you had was just to powerful to ever fold....even the advise button from the coaches would suggest the same play
some times you loose in poker and you did nothing wrong....every time you get in this same spot just keep getting it in and in the long run you'll make money
OK, I'll be the one to argue against playing the nut flush draw this way. I see no reason to bet the flop when checked back to you. Your hand is too weak to be betting for value and too strong to start turning into a bluff. It also puts you in a tough spot because you flatted the initial open. You can't represent TPTK or top set, which are two of the 4 hands betting for value here. He has both of those in his range and you don't. So, that leaves you with 22 and 33 as the only real value hands on this board (that get 3 streets of betting in). You have other stuff, like mid-pairs, weaker K's and flush draws that have equity and a whole bunch of stuff that simply whiffed. He can check-raise you with near impunity here, whether he has a K or not because you simply can't be very strong except with 2 specific holdings and he has the range advantage.
I have looked at how other people are playing flush draws and see the most merit in how Doug Polk goes about it. Without going into the weeds, he is always checking back the nut flush draw on the flop in position unless it is accompanied by other draws/made hands (like TP + the flush draw or straight and flush draws so it is essentially a value bet). This disguises the hand, protects your check-back range and allows your opponent to bluff into you should the flush draw fill on the turn. Remember, you get to act after he does. When you bet the flop here, you are almost guaranteed not to get any more action on the turn if the draw fills. On the turn (if flush draw doesn't fill and he checks), you would still check back the nut flush draw but start to use your weaker flush draws as bluffs (like 7/8s). On the river (again, assuming flush doesn't get there), you'd give up your weaker flush draw hands but can use your nut flush drawing hands as your bluffs. Its a cool way of looking at flush draws and from everything I can tell, it does result in both higher value on made hands and lower loses on misses. It makes you so much harder to play against when opponents can't spot your draws quite as easily. It also gives you more bluffs to work with to balance out your value hands (think getting paid more on value and getting more folds when bluffing).
As the hand went here, I can justify the call of his raise on the flop - mostly because you can't go bet and then fold your equity away too frequently. I don't see any point in jamming here though lots of people do it and pray. IMO, its pretty high variance weak play that isn't going to fly against better players. You'll get paid very little and lose max as soon as they figure out how you are playing these hands. With combo-draws its a different story but on this flop you really have a maximum of 9 outs you can count on, assuming he isn't on KK in which case you are down to 7. You can't count an A as a clean out here (he has AA and AK in his range). So, why get your money in at about even odds on a maximum 35% draw? When the 9d comes on the turn and he bets into you, I think you are done. You have max of 9 outs to the nuts and that's it. You have no fold equity left so all you have are direct odds and those are about 5:1 (19.6%). I'm not getting my money in to the way bad here.
A few more things for players who maybe misunderstand the odds of flush draws. We hear 35% so often that I think some players forget that its only 35% if they are seeing both the turn and the river. Your odds are 19.1% on the turn and 19.6% on the river. Don't overpay to see 1 street just to have to fold to 1 more bet. And about implied odds - don't be fooled into thinking they are very high on flushes. Certain straights and small sets are disguised well but flushes are kind of easy to spot, especially if you are playing them nearly face-up like so many do. Adding disguise to your play will get you paid a bit more so you can pay a bit more to draw but don't get carried away.
@1warlock said:
OK, I'll be the one to argue against playing the nut flush draw this way. I see no reason to bet the flop when checked back to you. Your hand is too weak to be betting for value and too strong to start turning into a bluff. It also puts you in a tough spot because you flatted the initial open. You can't represent TPTK or top set, which are two of the 4 hands betting for value here. He has both of those in his range and you don't. So, that leaves you with 22 and 33 as the only real value hands on this board (that get 3 streets of betting in). You have other stuff, like mid-pairs, weaker K's and flush draws that have equity and a whole bunch of stuff that simply whiffed. He can check-raise you with near impunity here, whether he has a K or not because you simply can't be very strong except with 2 specific holdings and he has the range advantage.
I have looked at how other people are playing flush draws and see the most merit in how Doug Polk goes about it. Without going into the weeds, he is always checking back the nut flush draw on the flop HU in position unless it is accompanied by other draws/made hands (like TP + the flush draw or straight and flush draws so it is essentially a value bet). This disguises the hand, protects your check-back range and allows your opponent to bluff into you should the flush draw fill on the turn. Remember, you get to act after he does. When you bet the flop here, you are almost guaranteed not to get any more action on the turn if the draw fills. On the turn (if flush draw doesn't fill and he checks), you would still check back the nut flush draw but start to use your weaker flush draws as bluffs (like 7/8s). On the river (again, assuming flush doesn't get there), you'd give up your weaker flush draw hands but can use your nut flush drawing hands as your bluffs. Its a cool way of looking at flush draws and from everything I can tell, it does result in both higher value on made hands and lower loses on misses. It makes you so much harder to play against when opponents can't spot your draws quite as easily. It also gives you more bluffs to work with to balance out your value hands (think getting paid more on value and getting more folds when bluffing).
As the hand went here, I can justify the call of his raise on the flop - mostly because you can't go bet and then fold your equity away too frequently. I don't see any point in jamming here though lots of people do it and pray. IMO, its pretty high variance weak play that isn't going to fly against better players. You'll get paid very little and lose max as soon as they figure out how you are playing these hands. With combo-draws its a different story but on this flop you really have a maximum of 9 outs you can count on, assuming he isn't on KK in which case you are down to 7. You can't count an A as a clean out here. So, why get your money in at about even odds on a maximum 35% draw? When the 9d comes on the turn and he bets into you, I think you are done. You have 9 outs to the nuts and that's it. You have no fold equity left so all you have are direct odds and those are about 5:1 (19.6%). I'm not getting my money to the way bad here.
A few more things for players who maybe misunderstand the odds of flush draws. We hear 35% so often that I think some players forget that its only 35% if they are seeing both the turn and the river. Your odds are 19.1% on the turn and 19.6% on the river. Don't overpay to see 1 street just to have to fold to 1 more bet. And about implied odds - don't be fooled into thinking they are very high on flushes. Certain straights are disguised well but flushes are kind of easy to spot, especially if you are playing them nearly face-up like so many do. Adding disguise to your play will get you paid a bit more so you can pay a bit more to draw but don't get carried away.
Great assessment 1warlock!
I looked at my play again and I think you nailed it. Few things: I would most likely 3-bet with AK. I might get tricky and flat AK on the button, but in most cases, I am going to 3-bet with the top of my range for value and the bottom for a semi-bluff, 22 and 33 are in my 3-bet semi-bluff range.
I have been studying a lot from Jonathan Little and he has ingrained in me to bet draws and made hands and check-call marginal holdings and check fold junk. I think in this spot, I am going to try to work in some check backs while in position.
If he checked again on the turn, I would check back 100% of the time. What could I rep here that he
would check call with that I beat? Not much. If he bet into me on the turn, I think I would give up for
this reason.
Now if he bet the river, I could call against a lot of his range that raised pre, checked the flop and turn,
and bet the river. If he checked the river, I think I would bet for value.
Can I send future hands specifically to you? This was amazing!
@mtbikemj said:
Great assessment 1warlock!
Can I send future hands specifically to you? This was amazing!
Thanks for giving it a read and I'm glad you found some things to take from it. I think doing these exercises in the open is best for everyone though. Seeing multiple approaches to the same hand is far more instructive than getting analysis and advice from 1 person, especially if that person is a donkey like me I am learning the game, just like everyone else here. I make mistakes all the time and I get to learn from others who point those mistakes out to me. In fact, I see another silly error I made in saying you had only 7 clean outs to the nuts going to the turn if he had KK. Well, that's not right, you'd have 8 (all the clubs except the 2).
Also, I am spending a lot of my time on theory and theory doesn't usually translate to optimal play in reality. So, lets say that my analysis was mostly right for a balanced approach to the game vs other balanced players. Well, we generally don't play against perfect players, or anything even close to them. Take the guy in your hand. What if you noticed that he opened every Ax and only Ax but only made a c-bet with top pair or better? What if you also noticed that he would fold to any bet after he checked? Well, then playing the hand in a balanced way is pure foolishness - you should try to isolate against his opens in position and bet anytime he checked. Theory be damned in that case, right? If you are picking up pots on the flop ~75% of the time even if holding 1 card and a cocktail napkin, that's just good poker.
Anyway, I'd like to continue to talk hands and theory and then how to take some of that theory and apply it to the games we are actually involved in.
Comments
A pretty interesting hand on every street.
Flop - While I think your flop call of the Villain's raise is justifiable, and likely most players' most likely move, it brings up whether a shove was preferable. If I put into the odds calculator (https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/winning-percentage-odds-calculator) (a pretty restricted range for the Villain, mostly hands that the Villian is made on hands flop - AA, KK, KQs, KQo, KJs, 22, 33, and a few big pairs they could be testing but stiill ahead QQ, JJ, and 10-10 and then a couple of bluffs, say suited connectors J10 and 10-9 and 9-8, you are still nearly a coin flip to win the hand and are getting better than 2-1 on a call (calling $84 into a pot of $179). Of course that's if you see both cards, so if you just consider the turn your equity is more like 25% so more like 3 -1 if you assume you have to fold to a big turn bet. But as you will not always have to if the player even with a made hand may not want to bet every street without a monster like a set you can likely figure in a bit more equity as you will see two cards in at least some situations. Even if you imagine no more money goes in the pot and say you win 40% of the time, as you fold to some big turn bets as opposed to getting to showdown the call has a +EV of about $21 ($1790.40 minus $840.60). Where it gets tricky is quantifying what the implied positive and negative odds are given that more money is likely to go in on the turn. Running sme various scenarios, calling may end up being negative EV move if you imagine that you'll be calling a lot of turn bets.
Being in position also allows you to call more easily rather than reraise. But a shove is also certainly defensible, and probably to some players preferable. If you are a nearly coin flip if you see both the turn and the river, then because of the $45 in preflop and your initial $25 flop bet, the shove is slightly profitable even without any fold equity (just doing the math quickly for being a slight underdog to exactly 50/50 I think your EV is something like $20-$35 for the shove). Then if you add in any fold equity, even at 10% your EV goes up another $7-$8 or so to take the 50/50 scenario to $42 say. If you have 30% fold equity, you are up to $57. Compare that to the range of EVs for the call and the uncertainty of those, the shove in this scenario may well be the better, although scarier move.
Turn - This is where I think you have the most difficulty. You have likely no fold equity to shove over the top, and now I think you need to assume the Villain has a made hand with a set, a K, or AA. You are heading into this river as a 4-1 underdog. You call $194 into a pot of $457 getting 2.4 to one odds. Even if you can assume the Villain will pay you off the remaining of $133 the 20% of the time you will hit the river, so the payoff is $590 not $457 your EV is still -$37 ($590 X .20-$194 X.80). If you lose this hand 4 of 5 times, the one big hit will not balance your losses. The turn is where I think you needed to leave the hand.
River - So if on the turn we have narrow the range to AA, AK, KK, 33, 22 and KQ and KJs, then the question left is does the Villain lead into you when an ace hits the board with the holdings KQ and KJ? If so that leaves you some equity and since you are getting nearly 6 to 1 on the call maybe you take that. But I do think many players default to the logic that there is just too much in the pot to fold. Seems like its true and perhaps the player is bluffing or holds a hand you just sucked out on. But in this case I would think if the ace does hurt the Villain he may just want to check-call because he does have some showdown value with KQ and KJ and hopes you just check behind. Which starts to make it very unlikely they are leading out with anything less than 2 pair, specifically AK. That logic may actually get you to a fold.
Thanks for sharing the hand! Really interesting one.
Thank you for the detailed response! I think the turn is where I got myself into a tough spot.
I think this is his opening range, assumes no air
77+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo+
On the flop, I block a lot of combos in this range, so the modified range:
KK, AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, QJs, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs
I'm have ~63% equity here after the flop, I think it might have been good to shove against his raise, however he would not fold out enough combos to make this profitable, I'd be left with around ~47% equity. If he had some bluffs in his range, then I would be ahead slightly.
AdAc,AhAc,AsAc,KdKc,KhKc,KsKc,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,KhQh,KsQs,AdJd,QdJd,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,KdQc,KhQc,KsQc
That Ad on the river takes a lot of combs out:
AhAs, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AhJh, AsJs, QdJd, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc
Now I am WAY behind this range ~33%
I think going all in after the flop bet would have been the best line here. Calling on the turn and river was not the optimal play.
i think you played it just fine...if you wanted to play it different just get it all in on the flop or turn but that's it...the draw you had was just to powerful to ever fold....even the advise button from the coaches would suggest the same play
some times you loose in poker and you did nothing wrong....every time you get in this same spot just keep getting it in and in the long run you'll make money
OK, I'll be the one to argue against playing the nut flush draw this way. I see no reason to bet the flop when checked back to you. Your hand is too weak to be betting for value and too strong to start turning into a bluff. It also puts you in a tough spot because you flatted the initial open. You can't represent TPTK or top set, which are two of the 4 hands betting for value here. He has both of those in his range and you don't. So, that leaves you with 22 and 33 as the only real value hands on this board (that get 3 streets of betting in). You have other stuff, like mid-pairs, weaker K's and flush draws that have equity and a whole bunch of stuff that simply whiffed. He can check-raise you with near impunity here, whether he has a K or not because you simply can't be very strong except with 2 specific holdings and he has the range advantage.
I have looked at how other people are playing flush draws and see the most merit in how Doug Polk goes about it. Without going into the weeds, he is always checking back the nut flush draw on the flop in position unless it is accompanied by other draws/made hands (like TP + the flush draw or straight and flush draws so it is essentially a value bet). This disguises the hand, protects your check-back range and allows your opponent to bluff into you should the flush draw fill on the turn. Remember, you get to act after he does. When you bet the flop here, you are almost guaranteed not to get any more action on the turn if the draw fills. On the turn (if flush draw doesn't fill and he checks), you would still check back the nut flush draw but start to use your weaker flush draws as bluffs (like 7/8s). On the river (again, assuming flush doesn't get there), you'd give up your weaker flush draw hands but can use your nut flush drawing hands as your bluffs. Its a cool way of looking at flush draws and from everything I can tell, it does result in both higher value on made hands and lower loses on misses. It makes you so much harder to play against when opponents can't spot your draws quite as easily. It also gives you more bluffs to work with to balance out your value hands (think getting paid more on value and getting more folds when bluffing).
As the hand went here, I can justify the call of his raise on the flop - mostly because you can't go bet and then fold your equity away too frequently. I don't see any point in jamming here though lots of people do it and pray. IMO, its pretty high variance weak play that isn't going to fly against better players. You'll get paid very little and lose max as soon as they figure out how you are playing these hands. With combo-draws its a different story but on this flop you really have a maximum of 9 outs you can count on, assuming he isn't on KK in which case you are down to 7. You can't count an A as a clean out here (he has AA and AK in his range). So, why get your money in at about even odds on a maximum 35% draw? When the 9d comes on the turn and he bets into you, I think you are done. You have max of 9 outs to the nuts and that's it. You have no fold equity left so all you have are direct odds and those are about 5:1 (19.6%). I'm not getting my money in to the way bad here.
A few more things for players who maybe misunderstand the odds of flush draws. We hear 35% so often that I think some players forget that its only 35% if they are seeing both the turn and the river. Your odds are 19.1% on the turn and 19.6% on the river. Don't overpay to see 1 street just to have to fold to 1 more bet. And about implied odds - don't be fooled into thinking they are very high on flushes. Certain straights and small sets are disguised well but flushes are kind of easy to spot, especially if you are playing them nearly face-up like so many do. Adding disguise to your play will get you paid a bit more so you can pay a bit more to draw but don't get carried away.
I enjoyed your argument sir
Great assessment 1warlock!
I looked at my play again and I think you nailed it. Few things: I would most likely 3-bet with AK. I might get tricky and flat AK on the button, but in most cases, I am going to 3-bet with the top of my range for value and the bottom for a semi-bluff, 22 and 33 are in my 3-bet semi-bluff range.
I have been studying a lot from Jonathan Little and he has ingrained in me to bet draws and made hands and check-call marginal holdings and check fold junk. I think in this spot, I am going to try to work in some check backs while in position.
If he checked again on the turn, I would check back 100% of the time. What could I rep here that he
would check call with that I beat? Not much. If he bet into me on the turn, I think I would give up for
this reason.
Now if he bet the river, I could call against a lot of his range that raised pre, checked the flop and turn,
and bet the river. If he checked the river, I think I would bet for value.
Can I send future hands specifically to you? This was amazing!
Sounds good guys...as for me I'm going to keep trying to get it all in on this spot
Thanks for giving it a read and I'm glad you found some things to take from it. I think doing these exercises in the open is best for everyone though. Seeing multiple approaches to the same hand is far more instructive than getting analysis and advice from 1 person, especially if that person is a donkey like me
I am learning the game, just like everyone else here. I make mistakes all the time and I get to learn from others who point those mistakes out to me. In fact, I see another silly error I made in saying you had only 7 clean outs to the nuts going to the turn if he had KK. Well, that's not right, you'd have 8 (all the clubs except the 2).
Also, I am spending a lot of my time on theory and theory doesn't usually translate to optimal play in reality. So, lets say that my analysis was mostly right for a balanced approach to the game vs other balanced players. Well, we generally don't play against perfect players, or anything even close to them. Take the guy in your hand. What if you noticed that he opened every Ax and only Ax but only made a c-bet with top pair or better? What if you also noticed that he would fold to any bet after he checked? Well, then playing the hand in a balanced way is pure foolishness - you should try to isolate against his opens in position and bet anytime he checked. Theory be damned in that case, right? If you are picking up pots on the flop ~75% of the time even if holding 1 card and a cocktail napkin, that's just good poker.
Anyway, I'd like to continue to talk hands and theory and then how to take some of that theory and apply it to the games we are actually involved in.