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A couple things with this hand. First, I am flatting the 3- bet probably more than 50% of the time. I decided to 4 bet becuause cut off's raise is wide and SB can recognize this and 3bet light from the blinds. I think a 4 bet can end the hand a good % of the time and I still have equity vs villains calling ranges.
As played, I think I should be calling this shove. I am risking 75K to win 208K (Risk/ Risk + Reward). 75K is amount I need to call and current pot size is 133.5K. 75/208 Which equals out to 36% equity. So I need better than 36% equity vs villains range to make this call profitable. If villian's range is QQ+, AK, I have exactly 36% equity. So it doesn't matter if I call or fold because it's a breakeven play. However, if I make villians range tighter, KK-AA and AK, I have 40% equity so it's a call.
WIth all that being said, I think it's a call because i'm not sure villian is shipping 100% with QQ and at worse my equity is even. When I reviewed the hand with several different advisors, I got the same advice. I should have flatted the 3 bet. After I 4 bet and get 5 bet shoved on, I should have folded. I dont't believe this is the correct advice. Wondering what Admins take is on this and if I'm thinking about this hand in an incorrect fashion.
Comments
A couple things with this hand. First, I am flatting the 3- bet probably more than 50% of the time. I decided to 4 bet becuause cut off's raise is wide and SB can recognize this and 3bet light from the blinds. I think a 4 bet can end the hand a good % of the time and I still have equity vs villains calling ranges.
As played, I think I should be calling this shove. I am risking 75K to win 208K (Risk/ Risk + Reward). 75K is amount I need to call and current pot size is 133.5K. 75/208 Which equals out to 36% equity. So I need better than 36% equity vs villains range to make this call profitable. If villian's range is QQ+, AK, I have exactly 36% equity. So it doesn't matter if I call or fold because it's a breakeven play. However, if I make villians range tighter, KK-AA and AK, I have 40% equity so it's a call.
WIth all that being said, I think it's a call because i'm not sure villian is shipping 100% with QQ and at worse my equity is even. When I reviewed the hand with several different advisors, I got the same advice. I should have flatted the 3 bet. After I 4 bet and get 5 bet shoved on, I should have folded. I dont't believe this is the correct advice. Wondering what Admins take is on this and if I'm thinking about this hand in an incorrect fashion.
flat the raise just see if you hit a Jack or if all low cards come...if so then look to get all in....if A, K or Q hits the flop fold to agression